A1130
Title: Anthropogenic warming increases the risk of major tropical cyclones in a nonstationary climate
Authors: Michael Wiper - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Concepcion Ausin - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)
Ali Sarhadi - Georgia Tech (United States)
Abstract: The aim is to quantify the magnitude and frequency of maximum sustained wind speed of major tropical cyclones, which evolve under different nonstationary and warming climates at different locations in global basins. Bayesian spatiotemporal models are employed to quantify the zero wind probability and the mean and variance of non-zero wind at each site in a given time, and then a lognormal regression structure is fit using INLA. Based on the Laplace approximation, the INLA approach allows for much faster implementation than the standard MCMC methods. Both parametric and semi-parametric approaches are considered to estimate the development of the parameters in space and time and use these to approximate the future risk levels at each location.
