Title: Identification of type I and type II error probabilities: Judging the justice system
Authors: Luke Nicholas Taylor - Aarhus University (Denmark) [presenting]
Shin Kanaya - University of Aarhus (Denmark)
Abstract: New nonparametric identification results for the misclassified binary choice model are provided, and it is shown that the misclassification probabilities can be interpreted as type I and type II error probabilities in a range of important empirical settings. We use our strategy to answer: what is the likelihood that a mistake is made in a courtroom? Using US case-level data, we estimate both the probability of convicting an innocent defendant and the probability of acquitting a guilty defendant. Furthermore, we allow these estimates to depend on case and defendant characteristics in a nonparametric way.