Title: Statistical postprocessing under model and climate changes: A challenge
Authors: Stephane Vannitsem - Free University of Brussels and Royal meteorological institute of Belgium (Belgium) [presenting]
Jonathan Demaeyer - royal meteorological institute of Belgium (Belgium)
Abstract: One important hypothesis behind post-processing of weather forecasts and climate projections is the stationarity of the processes under investigations. Model changes are however very frequent and nature is also experiencing climate changes. These modifications are affecting the quality of corrected forecasts and projections. The statistical and dynamical properties of bias correction and linear post-processing are investigated when the system under interest is affected by model errors and is experiencing parameter modifications in the context of simple well controlled systems. Challenges and way to cope with these modifications are discussed.