Title: Parametric post-processing of dual resolution precipitation forecasts
Authors: Marianna Szabo - University of Debrecen (Hungary) [presenting]
Sandor Baran - Faculty of Informatics, University of Debrecen (Hungary)
Abstract: In recent years, all major weather prediction centres issue ensemble forecasts which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model parameterizations. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produces operational ensemble-based analyses and predictions that describe the range of possible scenarios and their likelihood of occurrence. According to its strategic plans till 2025, ECMWF wants to improve the resolution of ensemble forecasts, which requires a substantial increase of computation resources. Researchers at the ECMWF experiment with a mixture of high and low resolution ensemble forecasts to determine the optimal combination on a fix computational cost. We investigate the effect of statistical post-processing of gridded ECMWF dual resolution ensemble precipitation forecast for Europe. We apply the censored shifted gamma distribution based semi-local ensemble model output statistics as our approach for calibration.