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Title: Markov and the Dukes of Savoy: A temporal analysis of the Piedmontese-Savoyard legislation Authors:  Madalina Olteanu - Pantheon-Sorbonne University (France) [presenting]
Julien Alerini - Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne (France)
Abstract: Although time is at the core of historian's research, using the right measure or the right scale for studying it are still problematical. One common approach consists in an a priori chronicle deconstruction, extracting the high points which are sometimes perceived as changeover instants between historical periods. When one is studying a time series, the employed approach and results are always ``controlled'' by a general context, and one usually looks for the relation between the context and the chronicle. The time series quantifying the legislation and more particularly the legislation related to military logistics, issued by the Duchy of Savoy during the XVIth and the XVIIth centuries, is not an exception in this regard, and is generally read according to the vicissitudes of peace and war. We aim at illustrating how hidden Markov models and integer-valued autoregressive models provide new ways and perspectives for establishing new periodizations and temporalities of the State, hinging on the transition phases identified by the models.