Title: Forecast revisions in a changing economic environment
Authors: Ana Maria Iregui Bohorquez - Banco de la Republica (Colombia) [presenting]
Jesus Otero - Universidad del Rosario (Colombia)
Hector Nunez - Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico)
Abstract: The forecasts of inflation and exchange rate contained in the Monthly Survey of Economic Analysists of the Banco de la Republica (Central Bank of Colombia) for the period 2004-2018 are analyzed. The forecasts of these two variables of interest, which are made for December of the current year as well as December of the following year, comprise an unbalanced panel of data in three dimensions with multiple individual forecasters, target years, and forecast horizons. The fixed-event nature of the forecasts enables us to examine their (weak and strong) efficiency by looking at the way they are revised by the analysts from survey to survey. According to our results, changing economic conditions appear to affect how efficiently analysts include new information when updating their inflation and exchange rate forecasts.