Title: Sub-daily rainfall extremes in Australia: An analysis of space-time variability and drivers across the continent
Authors: Marie Ekstrom - Cardiff University (United Kingdom)
Owen Jones - Cardiff University (United Kingdom)
Kirstin Strokorb - Cardiff University (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Aidan Gibbons - Cardiff University (United Kingdom)
Hayley Fowler - Newcastle University (United Kingdom)
Abstract: Heavy precipitation events may have severe and harmful impacts on the environment for (human) life. On a global scale, a warming climate suggests an increased moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thereby an intensification of heavy rainfall events. While current understanding of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall extremes is mostly based on observed daily accumulations, reported changes in sub-daily extreme events (flash-floods) are much less well understood. We use 1-hour accumulation observations collected via the INTENSE project and a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate regional characteristics and the role of geophysical drivers of rainfall extremes in Australia with a particular emphasis on 3-hourly totals.