A0211
Title: Predictability of Euro area revisions
Authors: Katharina Glass - Aurubis AG (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: The predictability of revisions to Euro- area major macroeconomic variables is investigated using real-time data from the European Central Bank. The application of nonparametric and semiparametric tests enables robust conclusions about the predictability of revisions. Though there is wide evidence of the nonnormality of the distribution function of revision errors, this is the first application of the nonparametric approach to examine revisions. Moreover, to gain robustness, tests for parameter instability are performed, and structural breaks are explicitly included in the predictability evaluation. The results underline the predictability of Euro area key macroeconomic revisions. Revisions are inefficient and biased, and revision errors are not optimal forecast errors.
