A0867
Title: Norges Banks system for short-term forecasting of macroeconomic variables
Authors: Knut Are Aastveit - Norges Bank (Norway)
Francesco Ravazzolo - Free University of Bozen-Bolzano (Italy)
Anne Sofie Jore - Norges Bank (Norway) [presenting]
Claudia Foroni - Norges Bank (Norway)
Abstract: Norges Banks short-term forecasts are based on a number of statistical and econometric models and judgment. A broad information set about the economic situation is part of the analysis. No single model can provide a complete description of reality. Different models have different properties. Theory and experience show that a weighted average of different model-based forecasts is often more accurate than forecasts provided by individual models. Norges Bank has therefore developed a system, SAM (System for Averaging Models), for averaging forecasts for inflation and mainland GDP provided by different models.
