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A0226
Title: Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey Authors:  Maritta Paloviita - Bank of Finland (Finland) [presenting]
Abstract: The aim is to examine aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). The focus of the analysis is on possible impacts of changing panel composition on aggregated short and long term point forecasts. We also investigate corresponding forecast uncertainties, which are based on subjective probability distributions. We compare changes in aggregated forecasts in the original unbalanced panel data with aggregated forecast changes based on a set of sub-panels of fixed composition. We also construct lower and upper bounds around aggregated forecast revisions. Our results indicate that the unbalanced panel data do not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information, but there are some minor differences between alternative survey aggregates, which are not necessarily non-negligible from the monetary policy point of view. We provide evidence that both micro and macro level analysis of the ECB SPF survey information is needed, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters and high levels of inflation uncertainty.