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A1316
Title: The Bayesian estimation, analysis and regression toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis Authors:  Bjoern van Roye - European Central Bank (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: We have developed a new toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis, the so-called ``Bayesian Estimation and Analysis Regression Toolbox (BEAR)''. BEAR is a comprehensive (Bayesian) VAR toolbox (based on MATLAB) where the programme is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, the BEAR toolbox includes a user-friendly graphical interface which allows the tool to be used by country desk economists. Furthermore, the toolbox is well documented, both within the code as well as including a detailed theoretical and user's guide. The toolbox includes state-of-the art applications such as sign and magnitude restrictions, unconditional and conditional forecasts, Bayesian forecast evaluation measures (continuous ranked probability scores), tilting of distribution, etc.