A0978
Title: Assessing the probability of museum opening choices and its spatial distribution through multilevel logit kriging
Authors: Sabrina Maggio - University of Salento (Italy) [presenting]
Sandra De Iaco - University of Salento (Italy)
Abstract: Museums are extensively distributed all over the Italian territory and have a very important role in education and recreation through research activities and exhibition space management, as well as they are the major repositories of the national cultural heritage, whose protection, valorization and development are endorsed and assured. An innovative methodology that combines multilevel multinomial ordered models with spatial continuity models is proposed. In particular, the spatial components of the data are treated as different units of the multilevel multinomial model in order to assess the complex pattern of variability at each level, as well as the resulting spatially indexed probability, are interpreted as a finite realization of a stationary random field, in order to examine its continuity over the territory. Thus, a multilevel multinomial ordered model is defined for the estimation of the probability of the museums opening decisions, by taking into account the variation of such probability both at regional and provincial levels for some peculiar museums characteristics. Then, the spatial continuity of the propensity, measured by the logit, of remaining open all over the year or at least seasonally, is modelled and a new form of kriging, called multilevel logit kriging, is used for interpolation purposes. The ISTAT microdata concerning the Italian survey on the museums and cultural institutions will be considered.
