A0986
Title: Forecasting of expenditures from foreign tourists traveling to Thailand
Authors: Sukanya Intarapak - Srinakharinwirot University (Thailand)
Thidaporn Supapakorn - Kasetsart University (Thailand) [presenting]
Witchanee Vuthipongse - Ministry of Tourism and Sports (Thailand)
Abstract: The objectives are to find a suitable forecasting model and forecasting period of the expenditure from foreign tourists traveling to Thailand. The data is gathered from January 2011 to December 2019 and is divided into two sets. The first set is the data from January 2011 to December 2018 for the modelling by the method of Box-Jenkins, Artificial Neural Network and combined forecasting of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Network. The second is the monthly data for 2019 for comparing the performance of the forecasting models via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that the combined model is the most accurate with the short-term (3 months) forecasting period, with the lowest MAPE and RMSE of 3.09\% and 6,212.43 million baht, respectively.
