A0716
Title: Synthetic controls with multiple outcomes: estimating the effects of NPIs in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: Seojeong Jay Lee - Seoul National University (Korea, South) [presenting]
Valentyn Panchenko - Univerisity of New South Wales (Australia)
Wei Tian - (Australia)
Abstract: A generalization of the synthetic control method is proposed for a multiple-outcome framework, which improves the reliability of treatment effect estimation. This is done by supplementing the conventional pre-treatment time dimension with the extra dimension of related outcomes in computing the synthetic control weights. The generalization can be particularly useful for studies evaluating the effect of a treatment on multiple outcome variables. To illustrate the method, the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are estimated on various outcomes in Sweden in the first3 quarters of 2020. The results suggest that if Sweden had implemented stricter NPIs like the other European countries by March, then there would have been about 70\% fewer cumulative COVID-19 infection cases and deaths by July and 20\% fewer deaths from all causes in early May, whereas the impacts of the NPIs were relatively mild on the labour market and economic outcomes.
