A0535
Title: Changes in extreme rainfall in Taiwan
Authors: Nan-Jung Hsu - National Tsing Hua University (Taiwan) [presenting]
Cheng-Ching Lin - National Tsing-Hua University (Taiwan)
Abstract: Global warming is a critical issue for the ecosystem and environment on Earth. Many studies have found evidence that global warming has impacts on more frequent and serious climate conditions. The purpose is to examine the impact of global warming on extreme rainfalls in Taiwan using extreme value analysis. The annual maximum of daily rainfall is characterized using a PGEV model. In particular, both the intensity and the frequency parameters are assumed to have a spatially-varying regression relationship to the global temperature anomaly. The model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood. Our analysis found strong statistical evidence that the intensity of extreme rainfall in Taiwan becomes more severe as the temperature increases, especially in southern and central regions. Moreover, the extreme rainfall frequency also increases as the temperature increases, especially in southern and northern regions. Further, the return levels of annual extreme daily rainfall are evaluated under four hypothetical scenarios of temperature arising from 0.5C to 3C. Even if the global temperature only rises 1C, the frequency of seeing Taiwan's current 20-year return level will be doubled.
