A0238
Title: A Bayesian multilevel time-varying framework for joint modelling of longitudinal and survival outcomes
Authors: Esra Kurum - University of California, Riverside (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Over 782,000 individuals in the U.S. have end-stage kidney disease, with about 72\% of patients on dialysis, a life-sustaining treatment. Dialysis patients experience high mortality and frequent hospitalizations, at about twice per year. These poor outcomes are exacerbated at key time periods, such as the fragile period after the transition to dialysis. To study the time-varying effects of modifiable patient and dialysis facility risk factors on hospitalization and mortality, a novel Bayesian multilevel time-varying joint model is proposed. Efficient estimation and inference are achieved within the Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, where multilevel (patient- and dialysis facility-level) varying coefficient functions are targeted via Bayesian P-splines. Applications to the United States Renal Data System, a national database which contains data on nearly all patients on dialysis in the U.S., highlight significant time-varying effects of patient- and facility-level risk factors on hospitalization risk and mortality. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is studied through simulations.
