A0235
Title: Forecasting tyre sales: Competitive models to improve inventory in a small business
Authors: Magda Monteiro - University of Aveiro (Portugal) [presenting]
Diana Neves - University of Aveiro (Portugal)
Maria Jose Felicio - University of Aveiro (Portugal)
Abstract: Demand forecasting is one of the key aspects of operations management, in particular sales forecasting, as it plays a key role in the retailer's resource planning that impacts consumer satisfaction. In the current global competitive business environment, where customer service and timely delivery are critical factors, it is necessary to obtain accurate forecasts that reduce uncertainty in customer demand. Different competitive models are applied using simple models, such as exponential smoothing and also more complex models, to forecast tyre sales in a small business in order to choose the most suitable for presenting inventory plans for tyre sales. Tyre types were grouped according to their sales into half-yearly, quarterly and monthly to evaluate which forecasting models are best suited, within these groups, to forecast sales to use in defining the inventory plan. To compare the accuracy and efficiency of the competitive models, several measurements such as Root Mean Square Error, the final inventory level average and shortage percentages are used.
