A1143
Title: Exploratory data analysis of innovation momentum: The application of semiconductor industry granted patents
Authors: Tsung-Han Ke - National Chi Nan University (Taiwan) [presenting]
Hung-Chun Huang - National Chi Nan University (Taiwan)
Hsin-Yu Shih - National Chi Nan University (Taiwan)
Abstract: In the field of technology management, technological progress was recognized as a trajectory demonstrating technological incubation, industrial establishment, and evolution. However, the technological trajectory was constructed upon conceptual observation rather than a quantitative investigation. The aim is to utilize econometric analysis to elucidate the trajectory. The time series data of semiconductor industry granted patents are studied by using the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) statistic, Lyapunov exponents, and Chow test. The empirical results show that the volumes of granted patents are non-linearly dependent and random, suggesting the chaotic behavior of technological innovation. Using the method of Lyapunov exponents, the nonlinear random variables are transformed into predictable stationary series. These findings could improve the statistical description of the technology trajectory.
