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A0245
Title: Long memory models for financial time series of counts trading behaviour patterns in futures on US Treasuries Authors:  Hongxuan Yan - University of Sydney (Australia) [presenting]
Abstract: This paper propose to incorporate the family of Gegenbauer Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA) models and a special sub family called the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models into the mean functions of count distributions, including Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Generalized Poisson (GP) and Double Poisson (DP). We define the error terms of the GARMA family under two different approaches, the parameter-driven and observation-driven approaches. The models are applied to analyse 136 individual U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) time series of counts which are each related to trade volume for futures-only and futures-and-options crossed classified with four fixed income securities provided by the U.S. federal government: Treasury notes (T-notes) at 2, 5 and 10 years and Treasury bonds (T-bonds) at marturities of 20 or 30 year terms. The analysis study of this kind undertaken by market participant type according to the categories of reportables and non-reportables and sub-categories of positions of their trading behaviours categorised by the buy and sell sides of long-call, short-put and spread being the difference between long-call and short-put. Furthermore, we study the disaggregated reportables data according to the CFTC four categories of traders, namely, dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds and other reportables.