A0425
Title: Clustering the impact: How economic realities and political institutions shaped COVID-19 fiscal responses in Africa
Authors: Samantha Joy Cinco - Hochschule Fulda / University of the Free State (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: The fiscal response of African countries to the COVID-19 crisis are analyzed with an emphasis on how their responses varied based on their economic situations and political institutions prior to the start of the pandemic. A dataset of political and economic indicators prior to the pandemic (2019) and the total amount of fiscal spending during the pandemic (2020-2021) for all countries in Africa was leveraged. Using this data, OLS regressions were conducted to determine the most influential political and economic factors affecting fiscal response during the pandemic. These factors were then used in a K-means clustering approach to categorize African countries based on similar economic and political profiles. Upon the completion of the clustering, further testing was conducted to evaluate the significance of the clusters on the diverse fiscal response. Country clusters were determined using estimates of current account balance, government effectiveness, and political stability, controlled for the total number of reported COVID-19 cases. Results indicate that countries within the same cluster exhibit commonalities in their fiscal response and in their economic and political profiles. Moreover, subsequent Kruskal-Wallis and Dunns test results highlight the significance of these clusters, showing that economic context and political institutions influenced a country's approach to COVID-19, specifically in fiscal policy.
