A0968
Title: Global and regional long-term climate forecasts: A heterogeneous future
Authors: Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain)
Abstract: Climate is a long-term issue; therefore, climate forecasts should be long-run. Such forecasts are crucial for designing the mitigation policies required to fulfil one of the main objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA) and design adaptation policies that mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. They also serve as an indispensable instrument to assess climate risks and successfully steer the green transition. A simple method is proposed to produce long-term temperature density forecasts from observational data using the realized quantile methodology introduced in a previous study, where unconditional quantiles are converted into time series objects. They complement the projections obtained by physical climate models that are mainly focused on the mean temperature. These averages usually conceal wide spatial disparities which, among other distributional characteristics, are captured by the density forecast. Furthermore, the approach considers climate change as a non-uniform phenomenon; therefore, it is crucial to analyze it from a regional perspective offering different predictions for a heterogeneous future. It is concluded with the proposal that future climate agreements and policymakers should focus on the whole temperature distribution and should consider regional disparities in climate change to assess risks and design appropriate mitigation, adaptation, and even compensation policies.
