A0526
Title: Political leadership and economic policy uncertainty: Analysis of US presidents' speeches
Authors: Krzysztof Rybinski - Vistula University Warsaw (Poland) [presenting]
Abstract: A novel approach to studying leadership is presented by analyzing 989 speeches delivered by U.S. presidents, from George Washington to Joe Biden. A machine learning model is employed to answer the question, "What makes a great leader?" within the context of a presidential speech. A statistical analysis of the generated answers reveals changes in presidents' views over time. It highlights the most crucial attributes of a great leader according to presidential opinion weighted by presidential greatness. A regression analysis spanning over 120 years combining great leader attributes and the economic policy uncertainty index for the United States shows that highly uncertain times require leaders who exhibit a charismatic leadership style, while servant leaders are better suited to lead in low uncertainty periods. An extensive validation and robustness analysis demonstrate that the results are resilient to changes in key parameters and consistent with the qualitative analysis of U.S. presidents' views on leadership conducted by other researchers.
