B0489
Title: Laplace approximations in double additive cure survival models with exogenous time-varying covariates
Authors: Philippe Lambert - ULiege / UCLouvain (Belgium) [presenting]
Abstract: Extended cure survival models enable the distinguishment of covariates only affecting the probability of an event (or "long-term" survival) from those only impacting the event's "timing" (or "short-term" survival). It is proposed to generalize the bounded cumulative hazard model to handle additive terms for time-varying, exogenous covariates jointly impacting long- and short-term survival. The selection of the penalty parameters is a challenge in that framework. A fast algorithm based on Laplace approximations in Bayesian P-spline models is proposed. The methodology is illustrated with the analysis of pension register data to study how women's time-varying earnings relate to first-birth transitions in Germany.
