A0417
Title: Identification of structural shocks in Bayesian VEC models with two-state Markov-switching heteroskedasticity
Authors: Justyna Wroblewska - Krakow University of Economics (Poland) [presenting]
Lukasz Kwiatkowski - Krakow University of Economics (Poland)
Abstract: A Bayesian framework is developed for cointegrated structural VAR models identified by two-state Markovian breaks in conditional covariances. The resulting structural VEC specification with Markov-switching heteroskedasticity (SVEC-MSH) is formulated in the so-called B-parameterization, in which the prior distribution is specified directly for the matrix of the instantaneous reactions of the endogenous variables to structural innovations. Some caveats are discussed pertaining to the identification conditions presented earlier in the literature on stationary structural VAR-MSH models, and the restrictions are revised to actually ensure the unique global identification through the two-state heteroskedasticity. To enable the posterior inference in the proposed model, an MCMC procedure is designed, combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The methodology is illustrated both with simulated as well as real-world data examples.
