A0216
Title: Structural determinants of house prices-at-risk
Authors: Matthias Hartmann - Deutsche Bundesbank (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: Housing markets in the euro area are currently at a turning point. High inflation and rapidly increasing interest rates have deteriorated the outlook for decision-makers on both the demand and the supply side, while uncertainty about potential price corrections in the near future remains very high. Structural determinants of the risk of downward price adjustments are examined in housing markets in the Euro area. In a two-stage procedure, a set of structural shocks is first identified in a vector autoregression model that is based on a decomposition of house prices into an asset price component and an input cost component. In the second stage, it is estimated how these factors influence the risk profile of house prices in a multi-economy data set.
