A1528
Title: Labor force participation and unemployment: Structural change from the pandemic
Authors: Neil Ericsson - Federal Reserve Board (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the most abrupt changes in U.S. labour force participation and unemployment since World War II, with consequences differing by gender and age. The U.S. labour market is modelled to help to interpret the pandemic's effects. Specifically, joint dynamic cointegrated models of disaggregated unemployment and labour force participation rates are formulated for 1980 - 2019. Those models are then used to forecast the pandemic to understand the pandemic's labour market consequences, treating those forecasts as being from an alternative scenario in which the pandemic didn't occur. Heterogeneity across gender and age is particularly prominent at the pandemic's outset. Lower labour force participation persists among many subgroups.
