A1516
Title: Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks
Authors: Danilo Leiva-Leon - European Central Bank (Germany) [presenting]
Herve Le Bihan - Banco de Espana (Spain)
Matias Pacce - Banco de Espana (Spain)
Abstract: A new measure of underlying inflation is proposed that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework jointly estimated on disaggregated sub-components of the euro area HICP and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second, it helps to track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory performance with respect to various criteria relevant to inflation monitoring.
