B1513
Title: Transmission of antibiotic-resistant bacteria explained with a Markov chain model
Authors: Fabio ACC Chalub - Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal)
Antonio Gomez Corral - Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain)
Martin Lopez Garcia - University of Leeds (United Kingdom)
Fatima Palacios Rodriguez - Universidad de Sevilla (Spain) [presenting]
Abstract: The assumption of a large population given for some models is extremely restrictive to examine infections in a hospital. Structured Markov chains and related matrix-analytic methods are proposed to analyze the spread of bacteria in a hospital ward. This spread is studied by using the probability law of the exact reproduction number. In this framework, the exact reproduction number is considered the random number of secondary infections generated by patients accommodated in a predetermined bed before a patient free of bacteria is accommodated in this bed for the first time. Particularly, the exact reproduction number is decomposed into two contributions, allowing for the distinguishment between infections due to the sensitive and the resistant bacterial strains.
