B1032
Title: Trajectory analysis for short time series in labor market: An application on European countries
Authors: Paolo Mariani - University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy)
Andrea Marletta - University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy) [presenting]
Piero Quatto - Universita degli Studi di Milano Bicocca (Italy)
Abstract: The relationship between data from the labour force survey and macroeconomic variables has been investigated in literature by many contributions. The link between the employment rates for some specific category of populations, the gross domestic product and a Gini index measuring the inequality in the income distribution has been examined for some European countries. To track this evolution over time in each country, a three-way data analysis approach has been proposed. Using this technique, a time trajectory in each country can be plotted. This graphical analysis allows for comparing the paths of different countries. The points in the trajectory analysis represent a short time series with not enough observations to achieve good predictions. For this reason, a weighted technique based on the superior influence of the most recent observations has been used to obtain predictions for the future coordinates of the trajectories. The proposed method also provided an estimate of prediction intervals in order to display not only the exact next point of the single trajectory but also a possible area in which it could be located.
