A1651
Title: The role of central bank forecasts in the turbulent times
Authors: Jacek Kotlowski - Narodowy Bank Polski (Poland) [presenting]
Abstract: The aim is to examine whether the public information provided by the central bank affects the forecasts formulated by professional forecasters. We investigate empirically whether the projection of GDP and CPI inflation published by Narodowy Bank Polski (the central bank of Poland) reduces the disagreement in professional forecasters' expectations and acts as an attractor for medium-term forecasts. We find that central bank forecasts are the focal point for professional forecasters. We also document that the role of the central bank forecast for the coordination of professional forecasters' expectations strengthens in turbulent times when the uncertainty is high and when inflation deviates from the central bank target.
