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B0718
Title: A methodological overview for quantifying the risk of an accident in usage-based insurance Authors:  Montserrat Guillen - University of Barcelona (Spain) [presenting]
Ana M Perez-Marin - University of Barcelona (Spain)
Mercedes Ayvso - University of Barcelona (Spain)
Jens Perch Nielsen - City, University of London (United Kingdom)
Abstract: Methods are presented to quantify risk with application to usage-based motor insurance. We show illustrations derived from a study of young drivers with PAYD Insurance where the risk of being involved in a crash by estimating the time and distance travelled to first accident is analyzed. The comparison between novice vs. experienced young divers shows that vehicle usage differs between these two groups and that the time to first crash is shorter for those drivers with less experience. Men show riskier driving patterns than women. The risk of accident increases with excessive speed, but the effect is higher for men than for women among the more experienced drivers. Additionally, nighttime driving reduces the time to first accident for women but not for men. Gender differences in the risk of accident are mainly attributable to the fact that men drive more often than women. So, we explore alternative methods to include mileage in the quantification of risk, as well as the way exposure to risk is contemplated in generalized linear models. Finally, we have also investigated changes in driving patterns after having an accident, and conclude that those who speed more and have accidents with bodily injuries reduce their proportion of speed violations after the accident.