B0467
Title: Dynamic prediction according to tumour progression and genetic factors: Meta-analysis with a joint frailty-copula model
Authors: Takeshi Emura - The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan) [presenting]
Virginie Rondeau - University of Bordeaux INSERM (France)
Masahiro Nakatochi - Center for Advanced Medicine and Clinical Research (Japan)
Sigeyuki Matsui - Nagoya University (Japan)
Hirofumi Michimae - Kitasato University (Japan)
Abstract: The increasing availability of genomic information and large-scale meta-analytic dataset for clinicians has motivated the extension of the traditional survival prediction based on the Cox proportional hazards model. The aim is to develop a risk prediction scheme for death according to genetic factors and dynamic tumour progression status based on meta-analytic data. To this end, we extend the existing joint frailty-copula model to a model allowing for high-dimensional genetic factors. In addition, we propose a dynamic prediction scheme to predict death given tumour progression events possibly occurring after treatment or surgery. For clinical use, we implement the computation software of the prediction scheme in R joint.Cox package. We also develop a tool to validate the performance of the prediction scheme by assessing the prediction error with the Brier score. We illustrate the method with the meta-analysis of individual patient data on ovarian cancer patients.
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