A0782
Title: Particulate matter and Covid-19 excess deaths: Decomposing long-term exposure and short-term effects
Authors: Leonardo Becchetti - Tor Vergata University of Rome (Italy)
Gabriele Beccari - Tor Vergata University of Rome (Italy) [presenting]
Gianluigi Conzo - Tor Vergata University of Rome (Italy)
Pierluigi Conzo - University of Turin (Italy)
Davide De Santis - Tor Vergata University of Rome (Italy)
Francesco Salustri - University College London (United Kingdom)
Abstract: The time-varying effect of particulate matter (PM) on Covid-19 deaths in Italian municipalities is investigated. We find that the lagged moving averages of PM2.5 and PM10 are significantly related to higher excess deceases during the first wave (end February-end May) of the disease, after controlling, among other factors, for time-varying mobility, regional and municipality fixed effects, the nonlinear contagion trend, and lockdown effects. The findings are confirmed after accounting for potential endogeneity, heterogeneous pandemic dynamics, and spatial correlation through pooled and fixed-effect instrumental variable estimates using municipal and provincial data. In addition, we decompose the overall PM effect and find evidence that pre-Covid long-term exposure and short-term variation during the pandemic matter, thereby supporting the two research hypotheses on the role of PM exposure. In terms of magnitude, we observe that a 1 microgram per cubic meter increase in PM2.5 leads to 20 percent more deaths in Italian municipalities, which is equivalent to a 5.9 percent increase in mortality rate.
